FanBoardHQ

Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee State University · 2022 · Conference USA

FanBoardHQ CFP
#77
Efficiency
-7.9
96th FBS
Record
8-5
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-4th
of 11
Middle Tennessee Fanboard →

Middle Tennessee went 8-5 and was ranked 77th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 86th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 96th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 60% of offensive plays with a 104th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 40% of plays with an 119th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-1
Q3
1-3
Q4
7-1

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
70th
-2.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
119th
full season
119th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
102nd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ James MadisonSun Belt#51L 744-15.60%-26.0Q2
2@ Colorado StateMountain West#120W 3419+8.5100%4.9Q4
3vs Tennessee StateOVCW 496+26.8100%16.9Q4
4@ Miami-FLACC#86W 4531-6.0100%11.8Q3
5vs UTSAConference USA#33L 3045-9.00%-13.0Q3
6@ UABConference USA#74L 1441-10.50%-37.3Q3
7vs Western KentuckyConference USA#61L 1735-9.10%-18.9Q3
9@ UTEPConference USA#107W 2413+2.4100%1.6Q4
10@ Louisiana TechConference USA#119L 2440+4.60%-27.5Q4
11vs CharlotteConference USA#123W 2414+15.8100%-12.9Q4
12vs Florida AtlanticConference USA#97W 4921+0.7100%18.1Q4
13@ FIUConference USA#121W 3328+16.1100%-17.2Q4
Postseason
vs San Diego StateMountain West#79W 2523-0.9100%-5.1Q4

13 played · 8-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Middle Tennessee, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-32.9-9.6+13.7-2651712-13-37-192-28-1318-17Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 104th
SR 94thYPP 104thEPA 111th
RushingEff 119th
SR 121stYPP 129thEPA 107th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 90th
SR 102ndYPP 96thEPA 76th
Rush defenseEff 53rd
SR 59thYPP 37thEPA 58th
Dropback rate 60%Tempo +1.8 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 83rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 39%1st · Defense allowed: 41%1st2nd · Offense: 41%2nd · Defense allowed: 42%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 41%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 39%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 78.0Q1 · Allowed: 69.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 130.0Q2 · Allowed: 131.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 66.0Q3 · Allowed: 103.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 61.0Q4 · Allowed: 37.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledMiddle TennesseeOffenseDefense
Middle Tennessee Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 86th
-3.5
Field position: +1.3Finishing drives: -4.9
Field position +1.3Finishing drives -4.9= -3.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 20th · Finishing 95th

Defensive EffRanked 96th
-4.4
Field position: -0.2Finishing drives: -4.3
Field position -0.2Finishing drives -4.3= -4.4
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 72nd · Finishing 100th

1.89 points per drive on offense, 1.97 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(213)64% / 36%41%5.8
Q2(277)64% / 36%43%5.3
Q3(215)53% / 47%37%4.8
Q4(230)46% / 54%38%5.3
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(206)10.242%5.9
2nd(179)8.041%6.6
3rd(130)7.736%5.2
4th(20)6.650%6.1
All (535)41%6.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(191)9.635%4.0
2nd(132)7.041%4.9
3rd(63)6.240%3.9
4th(14)2.271%6.4
All (400)39%4.4

Middle Tennessee, all games.